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‘Low’ forms over Arabian Sea as IMD confirms watch for ‘twin’ over Bay


European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees heavy rain along west coast with a blow-up around Mumbai (in purple) over next three-four days during when the monsoon may likely arrive over Kerala and North-East India.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees heavy rain along west coast with a blow-up around Mumbai (in purple) over next three-four days during when the monsoon may likely arrive over Kerala and North-East India.
| Photo Credit:
www.meteologix.com/in

The expected low-pressure area formed over east-central Arabian Sea off south Konkan-Goa coasts on early on Thursday morning and persisted into the evening even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared a watch for another low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal in next 4-5 days, likely precipitating the monsoon.

The ‘low’ over Arabian Sea may intensify a depression, though with a lag thanks to slightly compromised upper wind profile. IMD expects fresh ‘low’ over west-central and adjoining North Bay (off Andhra Pradesh-Odisha costs) by May 27 also to intensify. 

Twin-engined monsoon

businessline had reported a couple of days ago that onset stage of monsoon will likely be powered by two atmospheric engines cranking into motion to either side of the peninsula under what are most ideal settings not witnessed during recent monsoons. The Arabian Sea and the Bay arms may surprise with simultaneous onsets over land, too, as IMD had projected. 

Two strong systems may not be able to prosper together within confines of a single monsoon trough, with a possible third indicated to pop up, though beyond the country’s territory, over South China Sea that too falls under same trough. It naturally follows that one of the two to this side of the border may have to blink, and give way to the other. 

Bay may blink first

It appears from the Arabian Sea system may be stronger and destined for the longer haul than the Bay system. So the latter may have to blink first. Contrary to earlier forecasts, IMD slots the depression to hum around the Mumbai region before stepping out into the north Arabian Sea, before it weakens off Gujarat coast and approaches for landfall.

Meanwhile, the IMD said on Thursday the monsoon did not make linear progress in coverage for a third day. It assessed that conditions are likely to become favourable for onset over Kerala during next 2-3 days, which would also mark the next big leap of faith it makes towards mainland India, also marking a quantum jump in lateral coverage.

Blockbuster pre-monsoon

Conditions are also likely to become favourable for its further advancement over south Arabian Sea; remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area; Lakshadweep; Kerala; Karnataka and Tamil Nadu even as it breaks into the North-Eastern States.

Pre-monsoon season is inching towards a blockbuster closure with rainfall for country as a whole logging in at 10 per cent surplus at end of last week before onset of south-west monsoon. Central India (+106 per cent) and South Peninsula (+79 per cent) hogged the limelight while deficits were confined to North-West India (-24 per cent) and East and North-East India (-13 per cent). The monsoon itself is forecast to end this year in a surplus (+105 per cent) for the country. 

Published on May 22, 2025



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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees heavy rain along west coast with a blow-up around Mumbai (in purple) over next three-four days during when the monsoon may likely arrive over Kerala and North-East India.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees heavy rain along west coast with a blow-up around Mumbai (in purple) over next three-four days during when the monsoon may likely arrive over Kerala and North-East India.
| Photo Credit:
www.meteologix.com/in

The expected low-pressure area formed over east-central Arabian Sea off south Konkan-Goa coasts on early on Thursday morning and persisted into the evening even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared a watch for another low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal in next 4-5 days, likely precipitating the monsoon.

The ‘low’ over Arabian Sea may intensify a depression, though with a lag thanks to slightly compromised upper wind profile. IMD expects fresh ‘low’ over west-central and adjoining North Bay (off Andhra Pradesh-Odisha costs) by May 27 also to intensify. 

Twin-engined monsoon

businessline had reported a couple of days ago that onset stage of monsoon will likely be powered by two atmospheric engines cranking into motion to either side of the peninsula under what are most ideal settings not witnessed during recent monsoons. The Arabian Sea and the Bay arms may surprise with simultaneous onsets over land, too, as IMD had projected. 

Two strong systems may not be able to prosper together within confines of a single monsoon trough, with a possible third indicated to pop up, though beyond the country’s territory, over South China Sea that too falls under same trough. It naturally follows that one of the two to this side of the border may have to blink, and give way to the other. 

Bay may blink first

It appears from the Arabian Sea system may be stronger and destined for the longer haul than the Bay system. So the latter may have to blink first. Contrary to earlier forecasts, IMD slots the depression to hum around the Mumbai region before stepping out into the north Arabian Sea, before it weakens off Gujarat coast and approaches for landfall.

Meanwhile, the IMD said on Thursday the monsoon did not make linear progress in coverage for a third day. It assessed that conditions are likely to become favourable for onset over Kerala during next 2-3 days, which would also mark the next big leap of faith it makes towards mainland India, also marking a quantum jump in lateral coverage.

Blockbuster pre-monsoon

Conditions are also likely to become favourable for its further advancement over south Arabian Sea; remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area; Lakshadweep; Kerala; Karnataka and Tamil Nadu even as it breaks into the North-Eastern States.

Pre-monsoon season is inching towards a blockbuster closure with rainfall for country as a whole logging in at 10 per cent surplus at end of last week before onset of south-west monsoon. Central India (+106 per cent) and South Peninsula (+79 per cent) hogged the limelight while deficits were confined to North-West India (-24 per cent) and East and North-East India (-13 per cent). The monsoon itself is forecast to end this year in a surplus (+105 per cent) for the country. 

Published on May 22, 2025



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It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.

The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making

The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.

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