Blinkit is projected to hold a 63.4% market share by FY28, while Swiggy is targeting 36.6% through increased dark store capacity and higher order values.
India’s quick commerce race is heating up as the market is now expected to reach $57 billion by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley.
The report noted that two dominant players—Swiggy’s Instamart and Eternal’s Blinkit—ramp up investments and expansion to tap into the growing market.
While Blinkit currently leads the pack with a projected 63.4% market share in FY28, Swiggy is steadily closing the gap, targeting a 36.6% share through aggressive infrastructure expansion and increased average order value (AOV).
Swiggy’s Instamart has nearly doubled its dark store footprint to 4 million sq.ft., matching Blinkit’s area under management by 4QFY25. However, throughput—measured as gross order value (GOV) per square foot—remains lower for Swiggy.
Both players are benefiting from an overall expansion in the market. Morgan Stanley raised its quick commerce TAM estimate from $42 billion to $57 billion, driven by growing adoption beyond metros, higher online penetration in grocery, and a broader SKU mix that now includes electronics, home appliances, and fashion.
Swiggy projects a 63% CAGR in GOV through FY28 and expects to break even on contribution margins by 1HFY27, followed by adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2HFY29. Eternal’s Blinkit, meanwhile, is already closer to profitability, with estimated steady-state EBITDA margins of 4.7% by FY31, compared to Swiggy’s 2.6%.
Both companies added over 2 million monthly transacting users (MTUs) each in the second half of FY25. Swiggy has aggressively entered Tier 2 and 3 cities, while Blinkit is leveraging higher AOV categories and throughput per store to maintain its lead.
Despite the rapid growth, profitability remains elusive due to high customer acquisition costs and operating overheads. Regulatory risks around gig worker protection and foreign direct investment (FDI) norms add another layer of uncertainty.
Still, with a profit pool of up to $2.3 billion at stake, both companies are playing the long game. “There’s room for both players to coexist,” the report notes, but it adds that sustained margin improvement may ultimately depend on industry consolidation or operational discipline.
Published on June 3, 2025
Blinkit is projected to hold a 63.4% market share by FY28, while Swiggy is targeting 36.6% through increased dark store capacity and higher order values.
India’s quick commerce race is heating up as the market is now expected to reach $57 billion by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley.
The report noted that two dominant players—Swiggy’s Instamart and Eternal’s Blinkit—ramp up investments and expansion to tap into the growing market.
While Blinkit currently leads the pack with a projected 63.4% market share in FY28, Swiggy is steadily closing the gap, targeting a 36.6% share through aggressive infrastructure expansion and increased average order value (AOV).
Swiggy’s Instamart has nearly doubled its dark store footprint to 4 million sq.ft., matching Blinkit’s area under management by 4QFY25. However, throughput—measured as gross order value (GOV) per square foot—remains lower for Swiggy.
Both players are benefiting from an overall expansion in the market. Morgan Stanley raised its quick commerce TAM estimate from $42 billion to $57 billion, driven by growing adoption beyond metros, higher online penetration in grocery, and a broader SKU mix that now includes electronics, home appliances, and fashion.
Swiggy projects a 63% CAGR in GOV through FY28 and expects to break even on contribution margins by 1HFY27, followed by adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2HFY29. Eternal’s Blinkit, meanwhile, is already closer to profitability, with estimated steady-state EBITDA margins of 4.7% by FY31, compared to Swiggy’s 2.6%.
Both companies added over 2 million monthly transacting users (MTUs) each in the second half of FY25. Swiggy has aggressively entered Tier 2 and 3 cities, while Blinkit is leveraging higher AOV categories and throughput per store to maintain its lead.
Despite the rapid growth, profitability remains elusive due to high customer acquisition costs and operating overheads. Regulatory risks around gig worker protection and foreign direct investment (FDI) norms add another layer of uncertainty.
Still, with a profit pool of up to $2.3 billion at stake, both companies are playing the long game. “There’s room for both players to coexist,” the report notes, but it adds that sustained margin improvement may ultimately depend on industry consolidation or operational discipline.
Published on June 3, 2025
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It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution
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