India’s Retail Inflation 2025, Retail Inflation outlook for March 2025 live news updates: Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to have closed fiscal year 2024-25 between 3.8 per cent to 4 per cent headline in March.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pared the real GDP and retail inflation projections by 20 basis points each for FY26. CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is projected at 4.0 per cent (4.2 per cent), with Q1 at 3.6 per cent (4.5 per cent); Q2 at 3.9 per cent (4 per cent); Q3 at 3.8 per cent (3.8 per cent);; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent (4.2 per cent). The risks are evenly balanced.
Key inflation outlook
* March CPI inflation likely settled between 3.8–4% for FY25, with official data due Tuesday.
* Mixed vegetable prices and rising gold hint at flat food inflation but possible uptick in core inflation.
* Headline inflation remains near 4%, offering comfort to RBI amid recent rate cuts.
* February CPI inflation hit an eight-month low at 3.61%, with food inflation at its lowest since May 2023.
* CRISIL and HDFC Bank project March CPI at ~3.9%, with heatwave risks potentially pushing FY26 inflation to 4.2%.
- 11:51 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation live updates: India’s production improved in late FY25, but FY26 faces headwinds: BoB
India’s production improved in late FY25, but FY26 faces headwinds: BoB
Bank of Baroda report: Indian production improves, but Q1 FY26 faces global trade pressure; RBI rate cut may aid growth.
- 11:50 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation live updates: Expert view | EY India
D K Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor at EY India, said, “The average for January and February was 3.9 per cent, and for the quarter (January-March), it is going to be below 4 per cent.”
- 10:58 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation March 2025 live today: Retail inflation likely at 3.8-4% in March
Retail inflation likely at 3.8-4% in March
Retail inflation based on CPI likely closed FY 2024-25 at 3.8-4%, with mixed vegetable prices and rising gold.
- 10:49 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation 2025 live updates: SBI economists expect 75-100 bps cumulative policy rate reduction by March 2026
State Bank of India’s economic research department expects a cumulative policy rate reduction of 75-100 basis points by March 2026, factoring in the average inflation envisaged and the output gap consequent upon different GDP scenarios.
SBI’s economists assessed that based on the available estimates of natural rate the neutral nominal policy rates works out at 5.65 per cent.
They expect retail inflation to come down to 3.8 per cent in Q4 (January-March) FY25 and average to 4.6 per cent in FY25. Further, average retail inflation may come to 3.9-4.0 per cent in FY26 and core inflation should come around in the range of 4.2-4.3 per cent. However, vigil is warranted on food inflation with a likely heat wave unfolding.
- 10:48 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation 2025 live updates: US trade uncertainties to undermine biz confidence, adversely impact growth in Asian region: Moody’s
“Higher overall tariffs still place some inflationary pressure on the US economy,” Moody’s Ratings Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Nicky Dang, said.
- 10:46 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation live updates: More concerned about US tariffs impact on India’s growth: RBI Governor
More concerned about US tariffs impact on India’s growth: RBI Governor
RBI Governor prioritizes US tariffs impact on India’s growth over inflation concerns in post-MPC meeting press conference.
- 10:45 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation 2025 live updates: Cooling inflation fuels rate cut hopes: RBI may go beyond 25 bps in April, say foreign bank economists
Foreign banks and brokerages see the latest soft inflation print in India paving the way for further RBI policy rate cuts with some even predicting a larger, non-standard 35 basis point cut in the April 9 MPC meeting.
Some foreign banks expect a sub-4 per cent inflation print laying the ground for 50 basis points more cuts this calendar year.
India’s Headline CPI inflation softened to a seven month low of 3.6 per cent in February 2025, from 4.3 per cent in January, lower than consensus expectations. The decline in headline inflation was driven by a 2 percentage point decline in food inflation (21- month low) to 3.8 per cent year-on-year on the back of sequential contraction in vegetables and pulses prices.
- 10:34 | April 14, 2025
Retail inflation live updates: RBI pares GDP and retail inflation projections by 20 bps for FY26
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pared the real GDP and retail inflation projections by 20 basis points each for FY26.
CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is projected at 4.0 per cent (4.2 per cent), with Q1 at 3.6 per cent (4.5 per cent); Q2 at 3.9 per cent (4 per cent); Q3 at 3.8 per cent (3.8 per cent);; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent (4.2 per cent). The risks are evenly balanced.
Published on April 14, 2025
