The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) has pared the cotton crop projections by 1.67 per cent to 294.25 lakh bales (170 kg) in its second estimates following a decline in yields and output in Gujarat, the largest producing State. COCPC initially projected the crop at 299.26 lakh bales for the current 2024-25 season in November last year.

COCPC met on Monday and finalised its latest estimates for fibre crop for the year 2024-25 (October-September).

As per the second estimates, the production in Gujarat will be lower at 71.34 lakh bales, down 15 per cent from initial projections of 84.01 lakh bales. This is mainly because of lower yield, estimated at 507 kg per hectare compared with the earlier estimate of 597 kg per hectare. Yields were impacted by the adverse climatic condition during the cropping season.

Other States

However, in Maharashtra, the second largest producer, higher yields will likely lift the output to 89.09 lakh bales, up 5 per cent from the earlier projection of 84.01 lakh bales. In Maharashtra, the yields are projected to improve to 370.66 kg per hectare from the earlier forecast of 352 kg. Favourable weather condition is aiding the crop in Maharashtra and also in Telangana. In Madhya Pradesh also, the output is estimated marginally higher at 15.35 lakh bales (14.12 lakh bales from earlier projections).

In the Central Zone comprising Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the output has been estimated lower at 175.75 lakh bales (182.93 lakh bales).

In Telangana, the output is seen increasing marginally to 49.86 lakh bales (48.95 lakh bales), while in Karnataka it could increase to 19.15 lakh bales (18.56 lakh bales). In Andhra Pradesh, the output has been estimated to decline marginally to 8.77 lakh bales (9.41 lakh bales), while in Tamil Nadu it is seen marginally up at 1.30 lakh bales (1.09 lakh bales). Overall, the production is projected a tad higher in the South Zone at 79.08 lakh bales (78.01 lakh bales).

Lower closing stocks

Similarly, in North Zone, the output is seen marginally higher at 33.61 lakh bales (33.05 lakh bales), mainly due to higher output in Haryana at 12.44 lakh bales (10.23 lakh bales) and Punjab at 2.72 lakh bales (2.40 lakh bales). However, in Rajasthan, the output is seen lower at 18.45 lakh bales (20.42 lakh bales).

As per the balance sheet drawn up by COCPC, the closing stocks for the year ending September 2025 will likely be lower at 30.35 lakh bales (47.10 lakh bales).

COCPC estimates a muted demand for cotton from the both non-MSME and MSME segments. Overall demand is seen lower at 336 lakh bales against 354.48 lakh bales in the previous season. In its earlier estimates in November last year, COCPC had pegged the demand at 344 lakh bales.

Exports have been projected lower at 18 lakh bales (28.36 lakh bales in the previous year), while imports are seen rising to 25 lakh bales, up from 15.20 lakh bales. Prices will likely be bearish on muted demand and with the global trend also weighing on the domestic market.