Industry sources say the demand has been slack in Africa and South-East Asia
| Photo Credit:
istock
The global rice market continues to be in the grips of bears, with prices ruling almost unchanged or undergoing minor changes over the past 3-4 weeks.
Industry sources say the demand has been slack in Africa and South-East Asia. Buyers and sellers are exercising caution in trade.
“There should not be any misconception about a near-term recovery or a surge in prices in Africa, particularly Benin. All stakeholders have turned cautious,” said Rajesh Jain Paharia, a New Delhi-based trader.
Benin had purchased large quantities in the first quarter and holds a huge inventory. “One of my African friends says he would rather buy and sell in Africa than import from India or other countries,” said M Madan Prakash, director of Rajathi Group that trades in agri commodities.
After shipping 100 containers of rice to the Philippines, Prakash has not done much business in the cereal. “Mid-term elections in the Philippines put buyers on the defensive. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. promised rice at 20 pesos a kg (₹30.75). No one wanted to take risks, and they are waiting for the government formation,” he said.
“Current indicators point to the market facing recessionary pressure due to oversupply and weakening demand. There is no way prices can rise,” said Jain.
Prakash said that though Pakistan offered competition to Indian rice in the Philippines market, New Delhi gained the edge as the rice from the neighbouring country was “yellowish”.
Current conditions are an example of the market being imperfect, said S Chandrasekaran, a New Delhi-based trade analyst. Currently, prices of 5 per cent broken white rice have gone up by $3 a tonne at the most, with India offering it at $382, Vietnam at $397. Thailand has cut its prices by $3 to $403 and Pakistan’s prices are stable at $388. (See table for other details)
After soaring in the 2023-24 following curbs imposed by India on shipments, rice prices are now languishing near two-year lows.
India lifted all curbs on rice exports in October 2024 after its granaries were filled with the foodgrain. The only curb that remained was a ban on 100 per cent broken rice, which was lifted on March 7 this year. New Delhi imposed the curbs in September 2022 by banning export of broken rice and imposing a 20 per cent export duty on white rice.
In 2023 July, it banned exports of white rice and imposed 20 per cent export duty on par-boiled rice. The curbs were imposed as India faced production problems due to prolonged dry period and lower wheat production. India substituted rice for wheat in the public distribution system to make up a shortfall.
As of May 15, India has 38.19 million tonnes (mt) of rice, which is higher than the mandatory buffer norm of 13.54 mt. It has also unmilled paddy which can yield 21.36 mt of rice.
Agencies such as Food and Agricultural Organisation, US Department of Agriculture and International Grains Council are estimating global production of rice in the 2024-25 season to be above 535 mt – 10 mt higher than 2023-24. It could result in carryover stocks to the 2025-26 season increasing by at least 6 mt.
Jain said it would be good for exporters to keep a low profile now instead of looking at African markets. The over-supply situation will likely persist for a couple of months before any correction takes place.
Buyers could also be affected as they hold substantial stocks, and are looking for a way to dispose them of, he said.
Three weeks ago, BV Krishna Rao, President, The Exporters Association of India, told businessline that movementsin price and shipping are likely only in the third quarter as stocks in some of the countries would have declined.
Also, harvest of rice across Asian countries would be over by June and with the new crop likely to arrive only around September, prices could see some upward movement, traders said.
However, Jain said currency movements, particularly in the face of US tariff issues with other nations, could lead to volatility in the market.
“In order to improve export price realisation and manage global market share, governments needs to formulate a periodic monitoring strategy and issue advisories,” said Chandrasekaran.
Traders said with an above-normal monsoon being predicted, India, which has emerged as the number one rice producer this year, will likely have another bumper production. “India will continue to dominate the global market with its record production and competitive pricing,” said a trader without wishing to identify.
Published on May 21, 2025
Industry sources say the demand has been slack in Africa and South-East Asia
| Photo Credit:
istock
The global rice market continues to be in the grips of bears, with prices ruling almost unchanged or undergoing minor changes over the past 3-4 weeks.
Industry sources say the demand has been slack in Africa and South-East Asia. Buyers and sellers are exercising caution in trade.
“There should not be any misconception about a near-term recovery or a surge in prices in Africa, particularly Benin. All stakeholders have turned cautious,” said Rajesh Jain Paharia, a New Delhi-based trader.
Benin had purchased large quantities in the first quarter and holds a huge inventory. “One of my African friends says he would rather buy and sell in Africa than import from India or other countries,” said M Madan Prakash, director of Rajathi Group that trades in agri commodities.
After shipping 100 containers of rice to the Philippines, Prakash has not done much business in the cereal. “Mid-term elections in the Philippines put buyers on the defensive. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. promised rice at 20 pesos a kg (₹30.75). No one wanted to take risks, and they are waiting for the government formation,” he said.
“Current indicators point to the market facing recessionary pressure due to oversupply and weakening demand. There is no way prices can rise,” said Jain.
Prakash said that though Pakistan offered competition to Indian rice in the Philippines market, New Delhi gained the edge as the rice from the neighbouring country was “yellowish”.
Current conditions are an example of the market being imperfect, said S Chandrasekaran, a New Delhi-based trade analyst. Currently, prices of 5 per cent broken white rice have gone up by $3 a tonne at the most, with India offering it at $382, Vietnam at $397. Thailand has cut its prices by $3 to $403 and Pakistan’s prices are stable at $388. (See table for other details)
After soaring in the 2023-24 following curbs imposed by India on shipments, rice prices are now languishing near two-year lows.
India lifted all curbs on rice exports in October 2024 after its granaries were filled with the foodgrain. The only curb that remained was a ban on 100 per cent broken rice, which was lifted on March 7 this year. New Delhi imposed the curbs in September 2022 by banning export of broken rice and imposing a 20 per cent export duty on white rice.
In 2023 July, it banned exports of white rice and imposed 20 per cent export duty on par-boiled rice. The curbs were imposed as India faced production problems due to prolonged dry period and lower wheat production. India substituted rice for wheat in the public distribution system to make up a shortfall.
As of May 15, India has 38.19 million tonnes (mt) of rice, which is higher than the mandatory buffer norm of 13.54 mt. It has also unmilled paddy which can yield 21.36 mt of rice.
Agencies such as Food and Agricultural Organisation, US Department of Agriculture and International Grains Council are estimating global production of rice in the 2024-25 season to be above 535 mt – 10 mt higher than 2023-24. It could result in carryover stocks to the 2025-26 season increasing by at least 6 mt.
Jain said it would be good for exporters to keep a low profile now instead of looking at African markets. The over-supply situation will likely persist for a couple of months before any correction takes place.
Buyers could also be affected as they hold substantial stocks, and are looking for a way to dispose them of, he said.
Three weeks ago, BV Krishna Rao, President, The Exporters Association of India, told businessline that movementsin price and shipping are likely only in the third quarter as stocks in some of the countries would have declined.
Also, harvest of rice across Asian countries would be over by June and with the new crop likely to arrive only around September, prices could see some upward movement, traders said.
However, Jain said currency movements, particularly in the face of US tariff issues with other nations, could lead to volatility in the market.
“In order to improve export price realisation and manage global market share, governments needs to formulate a periodic monitoring strategy and issue advisories,” said Chandrasekaran.
Traders said with an above-normal monsoon being predicted, India, which has emerged as the number one rice producer this year, will likely have another bumper production. “India will continue to dominate the global market with its record production and competitive pricing,” said a trader without wishing to identify.
Published on May 21, 2025
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It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making
The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution
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