S&P Global has also projected 7 per cent and 6.8 per cent growth rate for fiscal year 2027-28 and 2028-29.
S&P Global on Friday lowered India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal (2025-26) by 20 basis points (bps) and the next fiscal (2026-27) by 30 bps based on global growth trends. This is in line with the projections made by International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Reserve Bank of India (RBI), besides others.
According to the rating agency, India is estimated to grow at 6.3 per cent in current fiscal, before rising to 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal.
Earlier, on April 22, citing global trade tensions, the IMF lowered India’s growth forecast for FY26 by 30 bps to 6.2 per cent and for FY27 by 20 bps to 6.3 per cent. Similarly, on April 23, the World Bank cut India’s growth forecast for FY26 by 40 bps to 6.3 per cent.
All the projections by global agencies for the current fiscal is lower than the RBI’s forecast of 6.5 per cent announced In April, reduced from 6.7 per cent. However, these estimates are similar to the forecast range of the lower band (6-3-6.8 per cent) given by the Economic Survey.
Meanwhile, S&P Global has projected a 7 per cent growth rate for the fiscal year 2027-28 and 6.8 per cent for 2028-29.
Regarding the world economy, the agency noted that much has changed since its previous forecast in late March. The US announced an unexpected, steep rise in tariffs on April 2, 2025. Following the announcement and the aftermath, the agency stated: “we are lowering our GDP growth forecasts. Global growth is 0.3 percentage points lower in 2025 and 2026 relative to our previous forecast round, and all regions are affected negatively.”
Compared to March, US GDP growth is expected to decline by about 60 bpsover 2025-2026, while Canada’s and Mexico’s GDP growth falls by a similar amount. Eurozone GDP growth is also projected to be about 0.2 percentage points lower over the next two years, with Germany taking the biggest hit among the major economies.
In Asia-Pacific’s major economies, China is expected to see a growth drop by 0.7 percentage points in 2025-2026, while Japan and India see a reduction of 0.2-0.4 percentage points.
In emerging markets (EM), more open Asia-Pacific economies (such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore) see the biggest decline in GDP growth, falling by 0.5-1.0 percentage points per year.
On US, the rating agency noted that tariff actions appear to have settled for now. However, the resulting level of US tariffs has not been seen in over a century.
“We calculate that the April 2 actions and the subsequent fallout raised the US effective tariff rate to about 24 per cent. This surpasses the level of Smoot-Hawley tariffs reached in the late 1920s, widely considered to be a contributing factor to the Great Depression,” it said, while adding that US effective tariffs are approaching the peak reached under the McKinley administration in the late 19th century.
Published on May 2, 2025
S&P Global has also projected 7 per cent and 6.8 per cent growth rate for fiscal year 2027-28 and 2028-29.
S&P Global on Friday lowered India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal (2025-26) by 20 basis points (bps) and the next fiscal (2026-27) by 30 bps based on global growth trends. This is in line with the projections made by International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Reserve Bank of India (RBI), besides others.
According to the rating agency, India is estimated to grow at 6.3 per cent in current fiscal, before rising to 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal.
Earlier, on April 22, citing global trade tensions, the IMF lowered India’s growth forecast for FY26 by 30 bps to 6.2 per cent and for FY27 by 20 bps to 6.3 per cent. Similarly, on April 23, the World Bank cut India’s growth forecast for FY26 by 40 bps to 6.3 per cent.
All the projections by global agencies for the current fiscal is lower than the RBI’s forecast of 6.5 per cent announced In April, reduced from 6.7 per cent. However, these estimates are similar to the forecast range of the lower band (6-3-6.8 per cent) given by the Economic Survey.
Meanwhile, S&P Global has projected a 7 per cent growth rate for the fiscal year 2027-28 and 6.8 per cent for 2028-29.
Regarding the world economy, the agency noted that much has changed since its previous forecast in late March. The US announced an unexpected, steep rise in tariffs on April 2, 2025. Following the announcement and the aftermath, the agency stated: “we are lowering our GDP growth forecasts. Global growth is 0.3 percentage points lower in 2025 and 2026 relative to our previous forecast round, and all regions are affected negatively.”
Compared to March, US GDP growth is expected to decline by about 60 bpsover 2025-2026, while Canada’s and Mexico’s GDP growth falls by a similar amount. Eurozone GDP growth is also projected to be about 0.2 percentage points lower over the next two years, with Germany taking the biggest hit among the major economies.
In Asia-Pacific’s major economies, China is expected to see a growth drop by 0.7 percentage points in 2025-2026, while Japan and India see a reduction of 0.2-0.4 percentage points.
In emerging markets (EM), more open Asia-Pacific economies (such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore) see the biggest decline in GDP growth, falling by 0.5-1.0 percentage points per year.
On US, the rating agency noted that tariff actions appear to have settled for now. However, the resulting level of US tariffs has not been seen in over a century.
“We calculate that the April 2 actions and the subsequent fallout raised the US effective tariff rate to about 24 per cent. This surpasses the level of Smoot-Hawley tariffs reached in the late 1920s, widely considered to be a contributing factor to the Great Depression,” it said, while adding that US effective tariffs are approaching the peak reached under the McKinley administration in the late 19th century.
Published on May 2, 2025
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The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making
The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution of letters, as opposed to using ‘Content here, content here’, making it look like readable English. Many desktop publishing packages and web page editors now use Lorem Ipsum as their default model text, and a search for ‘lorem ipsum’ will uncover many web sites still in their infancy.
It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout. The point of using Lorem Ipsum is that it has a more-or-less normal distribution
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